Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
