A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
